By Oke Peter
The energy sector witnessed another eventful week, marked by major shifts in Nigeria’s downstream market, growing momentum for energy investments across Africa, and fresh signals from global oil and gas markets.
At the heart of the week's developments was the continued transformation of Nigeria’s petroleum supply chain as new data released from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria’s petrol import bill plunged by more than 96 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, falling from ₦2.27 trillion in Q1 2025 to about ₦87.4 billion in Q1 2026. The sharp decline underscores the growing impact of domestic refining, particularly the contribution of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is increasingly meeting local fuel demand. Industry data also showed that local refineries supplied more than 3.1 billion litres of petrol during the quarter, compared to less than one billion litres imported.
The development was further reinforced by comments from Olu Verheijen, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Energy, who revealed that Nigeria’s petrol import expenditure had dropped by roughly ₦2.2 trillion year-on-year. The figures have strengthened the government's argument that domestic refining is gradually reducing pressure on foreign exchange demand and improving energy security.
In the cooking gas market, consumers received encouraging news as depot prices for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) began to ease. Market data indicated that the Dangote Refinery reduced its LPG depot price from about ₦1,400 per kilogramme to ₦1,230 per kilogramme, prompting other major marketers to review their prices downward. The reduction offers a potential respite for households that have faced significant increases in cooking gas costs over the past year.
Globally, oil prices remained volatile throughout the week as brent crude traded lower as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduced concerns over supply disruptions. Market sentiment improved following signs of stabilisation in key shipping routes, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global energy trade. Lower crude prices have begun filtering into refined product markets, raising expectations of further adjustments in fuel and gas prices worldwide.
Meanwhile, Africa’s energy investment story took centre stage at the Africa Energy Forum (AEF) 2026 in Cape Town, South Africa. The four-day gathering attracted governments, utilities, financiers, developers and technology providers from across the continent and beyond. Discussions focused on closing Africa’s electricity access gap, accelerating renewable energy deployment, strengthening transmission infrastructure and mobilising private capital for large-scale energy projects.
Several agreements were announced during the forum, spanning solar, wind, battery storage and transmission projects. Industry leaders emphasised that Africa must significantly increase annual energy investment if it hopes to achieve universal electricity access and meet growing industrial demand. The forum also highlighted the importance of regional power pools and cross-border infrastructure in improving energy reliability and affordability.
In the upstream sector, concerns persisted over Nigeria’s crude oil production performance. Market analysts noted that output remains below budget assumptions despite recent improvements. Industry stakeholders continue to advocate for stronger investment incentives, improved security in producing regions and faster project approvals to unlock additional production capacity.
The week also witnessed renewed attention on the role of the Dangote Refinery in regional fuel markets, recent export data indicate that the refinery is increasingly supplying petroleum products to several African countries, helping reshape fuel trade flows across West and Central Africa. Analysts believe the facility's growing influence could further reduce the continent's dependence on imported refined products while strengthening regional energy security.
Looking ahead, industry observers will be watching three key indicators: the sustainability of declining fuel imports, the pass-through of lower LPG prices to retail consumers, and the ability of African governments and investors to convert energy transition commitments into bankable projects.
Overall, the week underscored a broader trend shaping Africa’s energy landscape: the gradual shift from dependence on imported fuels towards local refining, regional energy integration and expanded investment in cleaner and more resilient power systems.
